Global Credit Agencies Raise India's FY27 GDP Growth Outlook on Resilient Domestic Demand

Leading global rating agencies and financial institutions are revising India's economic growth forecasts upward. They point to resilient domestic consumption and accelerating investment as key buffers against global headwinds.
S&P Global Ratings has raised its GDP growth forecast for India's FY27 to 7.0% from 6.6%. This follows Fitch Ratings, which raised its projection to 6.9% from 6.4%. Moody's had lifted its forecast to 7.0% from 6.0% a week earlier.
The main trigger for the revisions is India's stronger-than-expected performance in the April-June quarter, when the economy grew 7.8% year-on-year. According to S&P, this was supported by strong industrial activity, healthy consumer spending, resilient goods exports and rising government capital expenditure. S&P also noted that India's investment momentum remains among the strongest in the Asia-Pacific region.
Fitch said the economy has shown resilience despite external shocks, including geopolitical tensions linked to the US-Iran conflict and weaker terms of trade in the first half of 2026.
Domestic demand is a key anchor of the growth outlook. Nomura noted that limited pass-through of elevated global energy prices to retail fuel consumers, along with benign underlying inflation, has protected household purchasing power in urban and rural areas.
Investment is also emerging as a stronger growth driver. Fitch sees early signs of a broader revival in private investment and projects overall investment to rise by more than 10% in the current fiscal year. This is supported by 19% year-on-year growth in non-food credit in July.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, recently described India as one of the world's fastest-growing economies.
The agencies also flagged risks. S&P expects inflation to average 5.1% in FY27 and expects the Reserve Bank of India to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points. Fitch expects a 25 bps hike in October, citing strong aggregate demand, sticky core inflation and adverse supply-side developments. Moody's cautioned that higher energy costs and El Niño-related food inflation remain material downside risks. It added that India must continue to absorb the secondary effects of the US-Iran war shock on global energy markets.
Key Highlights

• S&P raised India's FY27 GDP growth forecast to 7.0% from 6.6%.
  
  

• Fitch raised its forecast to 6.9% from 6.4%.
  
  

• Moody's lifted its forecast to 7.0% from 6.0% a week earlier.
  
  

• India's economy grew 7.8% year-on-year in the April-June quarter, above consensus estimates.
  
  

• Fitch projects investment to rise by more than 10% this fiscal year, with non-food credit growth at 19% in July.
  
  

• S&P expects FY27 inflation to average 5.1% and both S&P and Fitch expect a 25 bps RBI rate hike.
  
  

• Higher energy prices and El Niño-related food inflation remain key downside risks, as flagged by Moody's.
  
  

Conclusion
The upward revisions by S&P, Fitch and Moody's reflect confidence in India's domestic demand, investment activity and export performance. The agencies also caution that inflation, energy prices, weather conditions and monetary tightening will shape the growth path in the coming quarters. For businesses and lenders, these trends are useful context when assessing the operating and financing environment.
Disclaimer
This content is for general information and educational purposes only and is based on publicly available news reports. It does not constitute financial, investment, credit or legal advice. Forecasts and projections are subject to change and depend on economic, geopolitical and market conditions. FinMen Advisors Private Limited is an advisory company and not a credit rating agency. Readers should verify information from original sources and consult qualified professionals before making any decision.
Source
NDTV: https://www.ndtv.com/business-news/global-credit-agencies-raise-india-gdp-growth-outlook-moody-fitch-jpmorgan-12085359